Joker (Kicktipp) explained

Kicktipp is a prediction-league platform popular in Germany, and many Kicktipp leagues play with jokers. The admin decides how many there are – for example one per matchday or a fixed number for the whole season. If you put a joker on a match, your points for that match are doubled. Under the standard rules, an exact score then earns 8 points instead of 4, and a correct outcome 4 instead of 2. A wrong prediction stays at zero.

Where to play the joker?

On average, the doubling adds exactly as much as the match would earn you in expected points anyway. So the joker belongs on the match with the highest expected points – not the most exciting one, and not the underdog pick with the biggest swing.

That is usually the clearest favourite win of the matchday. That is where the outcome is right most often, and narrow wins such as 2:0 or 2:1 frequently get the goal difference right too.

When a different choice makes sense

In the closing stages of a season, it can help to deviate from the average. If you are behind and need to close the gap on the leader, the leader will probably put their joker on the same favourite as you. A joker on a different match costs points on average but creates a chance to catch up. If you are in front, the exact opposite is right: go with the majority and manage your lead.

Limited jokers over the season

If there are only a few jokers for the whole season, it is worth saving them for matchdays with particularly clear favourites. A joker on a match worth 2.5 expected points is worth more than one on a match worth 1.5.

The Kicktipp calculator shows for each matchday where the joker earns the most expected points and, if you wish, includes it in the total.