Season prediction: title and relegation chances for all leagues
Who wins the title, who goes down? For 26 leagues we play out the rest of the season 10,000 times and show every team’s chances of the title, Europe, promotion and relegation.
| League | Favourite for 1st | Most likely to go down | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BundesligaGermany | Bayern München 72% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Calculators |
| 2. BundesligaGermany | Hertha 81% | Darmstadt 44% | Calculators |
| 3. LigaGermany | Viktoria Köln 47% | Havelse 74% | Calculators |
| Premier LeagueEngland | Arsenal 71% | Sunderland 55% | Calculators |
| LaLigaSpain | Barcelona 70% | Málaga 86% | Calculators |
| Serie AItaly | Inter Milan 36% | Venezia 70% | Calculators |
| Ligue 1France | Paris Saint-Germain 68% | Le Havre 70% | Calculators |
| EredivisieNetherlands | PSV 26% | Willem II 92% | Calculators |
| Austrian BundesligaAustria | Rapid Wien 73% | – | Calculators |
| ChampionshipEngland | Middlesbrough 29% | Preston 78% | Calculators |
| Süper LigTurkey | Galatasaray 79% | Eyüpspor 99% | Calculators |
| Primeira LigaPortugal | Porto 77% | Estoril 68% | Calculators |
| Scottish PremiershipScotland | Celtic 62% | Kilmarnock 52% | Calculators |
| League OneEngland | Huddersfield 40% | Bromley 80% | Calculators |
| LaLiga2Spain | Castellon 44% | Ceuta 95% | Calculators |
| Serie BItaly | Palermo 65% | Catanzaro 73% | Calculators |
| Ligue 2France | St Etienne 53% | Laval 45% | Calculators |
| SuperligaDenmark | Midtjylland 49% | Sonderjyske 71% | Calculators |
| EkstraklasaPoland | Lech Poznań 74% | Wieczysta Kraków 72% | Calculators |
| Greek Super LeagueGreece | Panathinaikos 45% | Volos 79% | Calculators |
| Liga IRomania | Universitatea Craiova 50% | Csíkszereda 99% | Calculators |
| Saudi Pro LeagueSaudi Arabia | Al Hilal 62% | Abha 83% | Calculators |
| AllsvenskanSweden | Sirius 59% | Halmstad 97% | Calculators |
| EliteserienNorway | Viking 58% | Start 99% | Calculators |
| Brasileirão Série ABrazil | Flamengo RJ 78% | Chapecoense-SC 100% | Calculators |
| Chilean Primera DivisiónChile | Colo-Colo >99% | Unión La Calera 99% | Calculators |
What the percentages mean
A 30% title chance means: in 3,000 of 10,000 simulated rests of the season, the team finishes top. That is not a guarantee but an assessment. Early in the season especially, many teams are close together and a few results can quickly change the picture. To test your own assumptions, enter results yourself in the league table calculator.
FAQ
How is the season prediction calculated?
For each remaining match, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams from their home and away strength in the current season. The rest of the season is then simulated 10,000 times. The percentages show in how many runs a team wins the title or ends up in a zone.
Why doesn’t the league leader always have the highest title chance?
Besides points, the model also looks at goal difference and at strength from the previous season. A leader with a narrow lead who finished mid-table last year can therefore rank behind a challenger that has been near the top for years. With every matchday the current season counts more.
How often is the prediction updated?
Every time the page is built, i.e. several times a day. New results feed straight into the team strengths and the table.
Are play-offs, relegation play-offs and league splits taken into account?
Relegation and play-off matches themselves are not simulated; the columns show the chance of the relevant league position. Leagues that halve points at the split, such as Austria, are calculated up to the split; leagues without halving, such as Scotland or Denmark, including the group stage.
Can I play out my own results?
Yes, in the league table calculator you enter results for the coming matchdays yourself and instantly see how the table changes.
Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.