Ligue 1 · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 21:05
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Paris Saint-Germain · Troyes
Full time 1-0 · Tip “Under 3.5 goals” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Saturday (7 November, 21:05), Paris Saint-Germain host Troyes.
The situation: Paris Saint-Germain have won 6 games in a row – Troyes are in a relegation battle
Paris Saint-Germain are in position 1 with 20 points, Troyes follow in position 16 with 8 points. Goal difference: 21-10 for Paris Saint-Germain, 7-16 for Troyes. Paris Saint-Germain currently occupy first place, but only 3 points clear. Troyes are right in the thick of it (relegation play-off).
Form guide Paris Saint-Germain: Inconsistent at home
Recent home wins came against Lyon (2-0) and Le Mans (3-1). There was also a defeat against Monaco (1-2). Paris Saint-Germain picked up 2 wins from their last 3 home games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
Form guide Troyes: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Troyes recently played 0-0 at Toulouse, 0-2 at Angers and 0-2 at Lille. Record in the last 4 away games: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 2-5 goals. Troyes scored in only 1 of those 4 games.
Paris Saint-Germain at home, last 3 (oldest → newest)
Troyes away, last 4 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes
The two sides have not met in the league in the last two seasons, so form and the table matter most here.
Injuries and suspensions
Paris Saint-Germain are without: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (cruciate ligament injury), Ousmane Dembélé (thigh injury), Nuno Mendes (bruising), Maghnes Akliouche (calf injury), Marquinhos (thigh injury).
Troyes are without: Junior Diaz (suspended), Anis Ouzenadji (ankle injury), Yacouba Koné (knee injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Ligue 1: Ligue 1 goalscorer tips.
Ligue 1 table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 21-10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 12-6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 15-7 | 17 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 13-23 | 10 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 9-17 | 8 |
| 16 | Troyes | 9 | 7-16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 11-18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 9-20 | 2 |
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes odds
The bookmakers make Paris Saint-Germain clear favourites. A home win pays just 1.12, a draw 9.00 and a Troyes win 15.00. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.32.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain to win | 1.12 | 83% | 71% |
| Draw | 9.00 | 10% | 16% |
| Troyes to win | 15.00 | 6% | 13% |
| Double chance X2 | 5.70 | 17% | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 87% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.32 | 71% | 62% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.30 | 29% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.80 | 52% | 42% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 48% | 58% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes
In short: Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93. We expect a 1-0. We put the chance at around 58%, while the odds imply only 48%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- Only 1 of Troyes’s last 4 away games had three or more goals.
Against
- At home, Paris Saint-Germain saw three or more goals in 2 of 3 games.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals · Odds 1.93 · Prediction 1-0 · Risk medium
FAQ: Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes
When do Paris Saint-Germain play Troyes?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 21:05 (Ligue 1).
Who are the favourites in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: a home win pays 1.12, a Troyes win 15.00.
What is the tip for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93. We expect a 1-0. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Paris Saint-Germain and Troyes go?
The two sides have not met in the league in the last two seasons, so form and the table matter most here.
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