Freiburg vs Union prediction: home strength v a bogey side

Sunday, 5:30pm at the Europa-Park Stadion: fourth host 16th. On paper it looks clear-cut, with the bookmakers offering only 1.47 on a Freiburg win. If it weren't for a stubborn run.

Form and table: Freiburg near the top, Union in the basement

Freiburg have 16 points from eight games and sit in a Champions League place. At home, Julian Schuster's side have won three of their last four league games, including a 5:0 against Gladbach. The only defeat was a 1:3 against Bayern. Midweek, Freiburg won 1:0 in Trabzon in the Conference League.

Union have only seven points and are one point above the relegation places. Away from home it has gone disastrously of late: 0:7 in Munich, 0:4 in Leverkusen, plus a 1:1 in Augsburg. That adds up to a 1:12 goal record from their last three away games.

Team news

Union are without centre-back Felix Uduokhai through suspension, as Flashscore and sport.de both report. That costs Union their aerial strength in the middle, especially against Freiburg's crosses and set pieces. For Freiburg, Patrick Osterhage and Bruno Ogbus are close to returning according to Flashscore, while Florent Muslija is out long-term.

The catch: Union have Freiburg's number

Union are unbeaten in seven meetings with Freiburg. The last two encounters ended 1:0 to Union in Freiburg and 0:0 in Berlin, so just one goal in two games. Union are traditionally compact against Freiburg and give little away.

Our tip: Freiburg to win

For us, current form outweighs the run. Union lost their last two away games with a combined 0:11 goal record and have to play without their defensive leader. Freiburg are in fine form at home. We are backing Freiburg to win at odds of 1.47 and expect a 2:0.

For

• Freiburg won three of their last four home games.
• Union conceded twelve goals in their last three away games.
• Uduokhai is suspended.
• Freiburg are in good spirits after the win in Trabzon.

Against

• Union are unbeaten in seven meetings with Freiburg.
• The last two head-to-heads produced only one goal between them.
• Freiburg played in the Conference League on Thursday, so fatigue is a factor.