Inter vs Como prediction: no Lautaro v the league's best defence

Sunday, 6pm at San Siro: second against fourth, with two points between them. Inter need to respond after losing the derby, while Como want to extend their run of four wins. The bookmakers make Inter favourites (1.80).

Form and table: two sides near the top, both in form

Inter have 25 points and sit three behind leaders Lazio. At home, Cristian Chivu's side have been flawless this season: five games, five wins, 17:7 on goals. That includes a 5:3 against Udinese and a 3:0 against Parma. Most recently, though, came a setback: 1:3 against Milan in the derby. Midweek they followed up with a 3:0 in Rotterdam in the Champions League.

Como are fourth on 23 points and have won four league games in a row, including 3:1 away wins in Florence and Turin. According to Calcio.com, Cesc Fàbregas's side share the league's best defence with Lazio, having conceded eight goals.

Team news: Inter without their captain

Lautaro Martínez is out with a thigh muscle injury and is not expected back until after the international break. Thuram and Esposito are likely to start up front. According to our data, Como are without Assane Diao and Jesús Rodríguez among others; Douvikas is set to lead the line.

What it means for the match

The league's best home attack meets one of its most solid defences. Even so, the last two head-to-heads were goal-fests: 4:0 to Inter in December, 4:3 to Inter in Como in April. Under Fàbregas, Como play bravely going forward and defend high, which opens up space against Inter's pace on the flanks. Inter, for their part, regularly concede at home (1.4 per game on average).

Our tip: over 2.5 goals

Who wins is more open than the odds suggest. Goals are the likelier outcome. We are backing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.45, and we expect a 2:1 win for Inter.

For

• Inter scored 17 goals in five home games and conceded seven.
• The last two head-to-heads ended 4:0 and 4:3.
• Como play attacking football and scored in four of their last five away games.

Against

• Having conceded eight goals, Como have the best defence in Serie A (jointly with Lazio).
• Without Lautaro, Inter lack their penalty-box finisher.
• In top matches, both sides often start cautiously.