2. Bundesliga prediction 2026/27: Promotion and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the 2. Bundesliga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 11 matchdays, 23 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | PromotionPos. 1–2 | Relegation play-off (promotion)Pos. 3 | Relegation play-off (relegation)Pos. 16 | RelegationPos. 17–18 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha | 31 | 72 | 81% | 95% | 3% | – | – | 1.3 |
| 2 | Nürnberg | 24 | 61 | 11% | 46% | 21% | <1% | – | 3.2 |
| 3 | Kaiserslautern | 21 | 56 | 2% | 16% | 20% | <1% | <1% | 4.8 |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 20 | 55 | 2% | 18% | 19% | <1% | <1% | 4.7 |
| 5 | Wolfsburg | 19 | 55 | 2% | 16% | 18% | <1% | <1% | 5.0 |
| 6 | DSC Arminia Bielefeld | 17 | 51 | 1% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 6.9 |
| 7 | Heidenheim | 16 | 47 | <1% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 8.8 |
| 8 | Bochum | 14 | 45 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 10.2 |
| 9 | St. Pauli | 12 | 43 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 9% | 11.1 |
| 10 | Greuther Fürth | 12 | 42 | – | <1% | 1% | 8% | 13% | 12.0 |
| 11 | Hannover 96 | 12 | 42 | – | <1% | 1% | 7% | 12% | 11.8 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 42 | – | <1% | 1% | 7% | 12% | 11.7 |
| 13 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 41 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 15% | 12.1 |
| 14 | Osnabrück | 11 | 41 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 16% | 12.4 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 41 | – | <1% | 1% | 8% | 14% | 12.2 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 39 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 12% | 25% | 13.5 |
| 17 | Darmstadt | 9 | 36 | – | <1% | – | 13% | 44% | 15.2 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 37 | – | <1% | <1% | 12% | 31% | 14.1 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: 2. Bundesliga league table calculator2. Bundesliga tips
Who will win the 2.-Bundesliga title in 2026/27?
Hertha BSC is the clear title favourite: the team finishes first in 81 per cent of simulations. The closest challenger is 1. FC Nürnberg (11%), followed by 1. FC Magdeburg (2%).
Who goes up?
The automatic promotion places (Places 1–2) are most often reached by Hertha BSC (95%), followed by 1. FC Nürnberg (46%) and 1. FC Magdeburg (18%).
Who goes down?
SV Darmstadt 98 are most at risk: in 44 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–18). Also in danger: Holstein Kiel (31%), Karlsruher SC (25%), VfL Osnabrück (16%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 207 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline at the league average and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Relegation play-offs are not simulated; the column shows the chance of finishing in the play-off place.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.