Premier League prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Premier League season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 9 matchdays, 29 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–4 | Europa/Conference LeaguePos. 6–7 | RelegationPos. 18–20 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 27 | 80 | 71% | 99% | <1% | – | 1.4 |
| 2 | Man City | 21 | 70 | 13% | 83% | 6% | – | 3.1 |
| 3 | Brighton | 19 | 69 | 13% | 84% | 6% | – | 3.1 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 16 | 60 | 1% | 35% | 22% | <1% | 6.2 |
| 5 | Everton | 16 | 55 | <1% | 13% | 22% | 1% | 8.4 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 15 | 59 | 1% | 31% | 22% | <1% | 6.6 |
| 7 | Brentford | 14 | 57 | 1% | 22% | 23% | 1% | 7.4 |
| 8 | Leeds | 14 | 52 | <1% | 8% | 18% | 3% | 9.7 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 12 | 53 | <1% | 8% | 19% | 3% | 9.5 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 12 | 48 | – | 2% | 8% | 11% | 12.4 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 12 | 48 | <1% | 2% | 9% | 11% | 12.2 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 12 | 53 | <1% | 9% | 18% | 3% | 9.5 |
| 13 | Hull | 11 | 44 | – | 1% | 4% | 23% | 14.3 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 11 | 45 | – | 1% | 5% | 22% | 14.1 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 45 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 21% | 13.9 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 9 | 43 | – | 0% | 3% | 27% | 14.7 |
| 17 | Coventry | 9 | 39 | – | <1% | 1% | 54% | 16.9 |
| 18 | Man United | 7 | 46 | – | 1% | 7% | 16% | 13.1 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 40 | – | <1% | 1% | 48% | 16.5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 5 | 38 | – | <1% | 1% | 55% | 16.9 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Premier League league table calculatorPremier League tips
Who will win the Premier-League title in 2026/27?
Arsenal goes into the remaining 29 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 71 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Man City (13%), followed by Brighton (13%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–4: Brighton reach 84%, Man City reach 83%, Chelsea reach 35%.
Who goes down?
Sunderland are most at risk: in 55 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 18–20). Also in danger: Coventry (54%), Crystal Palace (48%), Nottm Forest (27%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 285 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.