Brasileirão Série A prediction 2026: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Brasileirão Série A season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 34 matchdays, 4 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Copa LibertadoresPos. 2–6 | Copa SudamericanaPos. 7–12 | RelegationPos. 17–20 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 76 | 83 | 78% | 22% | – | – | 1.2 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 73 | 80 | 22% | 78% | – | – | 1.8 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 60 | 66 | – | >99% | <1% | – | 3.4 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 57 | 63 | – | 99% | 1% | – | 4.1 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 54 | 60 | – | 91% | 9% | – | 5.2 |
| 6 | Bahia | 53 | 59 | – | 73% | 27% | – | 5.9 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 50 | 56 | – | 28% | 72% | – | 7.2 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 47 | 53 | – | 4% | 96% | – | 8.6 |
| 9 | Santos | 47 | 53 | – | 5% | 95% | – | 8.6 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 44 | 50 | – | <1% | 90% | <1% | 10.4 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 42 | 48 | – | – | 63% | 2% | 12.0 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 42 | 46 | – | – | 28% | 7% | 13.7 |
| 13 | Vasco | 41 | 48 | – | <1% | 69% | 2% | 11.7 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 40 | 45 | – | – | 19% | 18% | 14.4 |
| 15 | Internacional | 38 | 43 | – | – | 13% | 28% | 15.0 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 38 | 43 | – | – | 6% | 48% | 16.0 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 37 | 42 | – | – | 8% | 43% | 15.8 |
| 18 | Gremio | 37 | 42 | – | – | 5% | 51% | 16.1 |
| 19 | Remo | 29 | 34 | – | – | – | >99% | 19.0 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 21 | 25 | – | – | – | 100% | 20.0 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Brasileirão Série A league table calculatorBrasileirão Série A tips
Who will win the Brasileirão-Série-A title in 2026?
Flamengo RJ goes into the remaining 4 matchdays as favourite and finishes first in 78 per cent of runs. The closest challenger is Palmeiras (22%).
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 2–6: Palmeiras reach 78%, Bahia reach 73%, Atletico-MG reach 28%.
Who goes down?
Chapecoense-SC are most at risk: in over 99 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 17–20). Also in danger: Remo (>99%), Gremio (51%), Vitoria (48%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 41 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline at the league average and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- If teams are level on points, wins count first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- The allocation of European and relegation places may still shift due to cup winners or licensing decisions.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.