Greek Super League prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Greek Super League season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 9 matchdays, 17 matchdays left until the league split.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | 1st placePos. 1 | Championship play-offPos. 1–4 | RelegationPos. 13–14 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 24 | 54 | 45% | 97% | – | 1.9 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 22 | 53 | 34% | 95% | – | 2.2 |
| 3 | Aris | 19 | 42 | 1% | 27% | <1% | 5.4 |
| 4 | PAOK | 18 | 46 | 5% | 66% | – | 4.0 |
| 5 | AEK Athens | 17 | 50 | 14% | 86% | – | 3.0 |
| 6 | OFI | 16 | 41 | 1% | 24% | <1% | 5.5 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 14 | 35 | <1% | 3% | 1% | 7.6 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 11 | 30 | – | <1% | 8% | 9.5 |
| 9 | Iraklis | 10 | 31 | <1% | 1% | 6% | 9.0 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 9 | 27 | – | <1% | 20% | 10.6 |
| 11 | Levadiakos | 6 | 26 | – | <1% | 26% | 10.9 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 25 | – | – | 40% | 11.6 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 5 | 27 | – | <1% | 20% | 10.5 |
| 14 | Volos | 3 | 19 | – | – | 79% | 13.2 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end of the regular season, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Greek Super League league table calculatorGreek Super League tips
Who finishes first in the regular season?
The race for first place after the regular season (round 26) is open. Panathinaikos are narrowly ahead with 45 per cent. The closest challenger is Olympiacos (34%), followed by AEK Athens (14%).
Who goes down?
Volos are most at risk: in 79 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 13–14). Also in danger: Asteras Tripolis (40%), Levadiakos (26%), Panetolikos (20%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 118 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- After round 26 the league splits (Championship play-off, Play-off 5-8, Play-out). Only the regular season is simulated; the percentages refer to the table after round 26.
- Play-off and play-out matches are not simulated; the column shows how often a team reaches the corresponding league position.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- The allocation of European and relegation places may still shift due to cup winners or licensing decisions.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
More season predictions
Bundesliga · 2. Bundesliga · 3. Liga · Premier League · LaLiga · Serie A · Ligue 1 · Eredivisie · Austrian Bundesliga · Championship · Süper Lig · Primeira Liga · all leagues
Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.