Liga I prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Liga I season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 15 matchdays, 15 matchdays left until the league split.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | 1st placePos. 1 | Championship play-offPos. 1–6 | Relegation dangerPos. 13–16 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 33 | 61 | 47% | >99% | – | 1.8 |
| 2 | Dinamo București | 33 | 61 | 41% | >99% | – | 1.9 |
| 3 | Rapid București | 31 | 56 | 10% | 98% | – | 3.1 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiești | 27 | 49 | 1% | 78% | <1% | 5.3 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 26 | 50 | 1% | 85% | <1% | 4.8 |
| 6 | Farul Constanța | 24 | 46 | <1% | 58% | 0% | 6.4 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 22 | 41 | <1% | 22% | 4% | 8.4 |
| 8 | FCSB | 21 | 42 | <1% | 23% | 3% | 8.3 |
| 9 | CFR Cluj | 19 | 40 | <1% | 16% | 6% | 8.8 |
| 10 | UTA Arad | 18 | 39 | – | 10% | 11% | 9.6 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK | 18 | 35 | – | 2% | 33% | 11.3 |
| 12 | Argeș Pitești | 15 | 32 | – | 1% | 55% | 12.3 |
| 13 | Botoșani | 14 | 37 | – | 6% | 21% | 10.4 |
| 14 | Oțelul Galați | 12 | 31 | – | <1% | 68% | 12.9 |
| 15 | Voluntari | 8 | 21 | – | – | 99% | 15.3 |
| 16 | Csíkszereda | 6 | 20 | – | – | 99% | 15.4 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end of the regular season, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Liga I league table calculatorLiga I tips
Who finishes first in the regular season?
The race for first place after the regular season (round 30) is open. Universitatea Craiova are narrowly ahead with 47 per cent. The closest challenger is Dinamo București (41%), followed by Rapid București (10%).
Who goes down?
Csíkszereda are most at risk: in 99 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 13–16). Also in danger: Voluntari (99%), Oțelul Galați (68%), Argeș Pitești (55%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 121 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- After round 30 the league splits (Championship play-off, Relegation play-out) and points are halved. Only the regular season is simulated; the percentages refer to the table after round 30.
- Play-off and play-out matches are not simulated; the column shows how often a team reaches the corresponding league position.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.