Superliga prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Superliga season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 14 matchdays, 8 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Championship roundPos. 1–6 | Relegation dangerPos. 11–12 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copenhagen | 32 | 61 | 43% | 100% | – | 1.8 |
| 2 | Midtjylland | 31 | 62 | 50% | 100% | – | 1.7 |
| 3 | Viborg | 26 | 53 | 5% | >99% | – | 3.4 |
| 4 | Nordsjaelland | 23 | 49 | 2% | 97% | <1% | 4.1 |
| 5 | Brondby | 22 | 46 | <1% | 89% | <1% | 4.9 |
| 6 | Odense | 17 | 41 | <1% | 40% | 6% | 7.2 |
| 7 | Horsens | 16 | 41 | <1% | 32% | 6% | 7.4 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 15 | 39 | – | 21% | 11% | 8.0 |
| 9 | Silkeborg | 15 | 39 | – | 16% | 13% | 8.3 |
| 10 | Lyngby | 11 | 33 | – | 2% | 46% | 10.1 |
| 11 | Randers | 11 | 33 | – | 2% | 51% | 10.2 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 8 | 31 | – | 1% | 66% | 10.8 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end (including the group stage), Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Superliga league table calculatorSuperliga tips
Who will win the Superliga title in 2026/27?
The title race is open. FC Midtjylland are narrowly ahead with 50 per cent. The closest challenger is FC Copenhagen (43%), followed by Viborg (5%). FC Copenhagen currently lead with 32 points, but the model rates Midtjylland stronger for the rest of the season.
Who goes down?
Sonderjyske are most at risk: in 66 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 11–12). Also in danger: Randers FC (51%), Lyngby (46%), Silkeborg (13%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 49 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline at the league average and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- After round 22 the league splits; the group stage is included in the simulation. Teams then stay in their half of the table.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.