Sunday, 8 November 2026
Favourites today: the safest win tips
The clearest favourites today and tomorrow: teams with the highest win probability at odds of at least 1.25. “Safe” only means likely here – even clear favourites lose regularly.
20 matches from 13 leagues
| Kick-off | Match | League | Tip | Prob. | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 17:30 | Freiburg – Union BerlinBundesliga · Freiburg to win | Bundesliga | Freiburg to win | 70 % | 1.45 | Analysis → |
| Sun 20:15 | Lech Poznań – Zagłębie LubinEkstraklasa · Lech Poznań to win | Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznań to win | 66 % | 1.40 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:45 | Cambuur – PSVEredivisie · PSV to win | Eredivisie | PSV to win | 64 % | 1.33 | Analysis → |
| Sun 18:30 | Villarreal – GetafeLaLiga · Villarreal to win | LaLiga | Villarreal to win | 63 % | 1.42 | Analysis → |
| Sun 18:30 | Union – GenkBelgian Pro League · Union to win | Belgian Pro League | Union to win | 63 % | 1.55 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:30 | AIK – HackenAllsvenskan · Hacken to win | Allsvenskan | Hacken to win | 60 % | 1.52 | Analysis → |
| Sun 21:30 | Rio Ave – BragaPrimeira Liga · Braga to win | Primeira Liga | Braga to win | 59 % | 1.45 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:30 | Universidad Católica – Deportes LimacheChilean Primera División · Universidad Católica to win | Chilean Primera División | Universidad Católica to win | 58 % | 1.42 | Analysis → |
| Sun 20:00 | Olympiacos – PAOKGreek Super League · Olympiacos to win | Greek Super League | Olympiacos to win | 57 % | 1.57 | Analysis → |
| Sun 19:30 | Hoffenheim – SchalkeBundesliga · Hoffenheim to win | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim to win | 57 % | 1.55 | Analysis → |
| Sun 23:15 | Ceara – America MGBrazilian Série B · Ceara to win | Brazilian Série B | Ceara to win | 56 % | 1.55 | Analysis → |
| Sun 17:30 | Legia Warschau – Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa · Legia Warschau to win | Ekstraklasa | Legia Warschau to win | 55 % | 1.70 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:30 | Iraklis – PanathinaikosGreek Super League · Panathinaikos to win | Greek Super League | Panathinaikos to win | 55 % | 1.30 | Analysis → |
| Sun 19:00 | Vitória Guimarães – PortoPrimeira Liga · Porto to win | Primeira Liga | Porto to win | 55 % | 1.50 | Analysis → |
| Mon 20:30 | Sabadell – Real Sociedad BLaLiga2 · Sabadell to win | LaLiga2 | Sabadell to win | 55 % | 1.60 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar – GroningenEredivisie · AZ Alkmaar to win | Eredivisie | AZ Alkmaar to win | 54 % | 1.47 | Analysis → |
| Sun 23:30 | Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero – LanúsArgentine Primera División · Lanús to win | Argentine Primera División | Lanús to win | 53 % | 1.60 | Analysis → |
| Sun 18:30 | Celta Vigo – LevanteLaLiga · Celta Vigo to win | LaLiga | Celta Vigo to win | 53 % | 1.77 | Analysis → |
| Sun 16:15 | Real Sociedad – Rayo VallecanoLaLiga · Real Sociedad to win | LaLiga | Real Sociedad to win | 53 % | 1.75 | Analysis → |
| Sun 17:00 | Lillestrøm – AalesundEliteserien · Lillestrøm to win | Eliteserien | Lillestrøm to win | 53 % | 1.62 | Analysis → |
Probability: odds minus bookmaker margin combined with our statistical model (model only if no odds). Odds from the last update; they may change before kick-off. 18+ · not betting advice · gambling can be addictive, help: gamblingtherapy.org
Top of the list is Freiburg vs Union Berlin (Bundesliga) at 70% with odds of 1.45. Each row links to the full analysis with form, table, head-to-head and absences.
FAQ: Favourites
How safe are favourite tips?
Even with a 75% win probability, the favourite still loses or draws one game in four. There is no such thing as a safe bet.
Why only from odds of 1.25?
Below that, the potential return is so small that a single slip-up wipes out many wins. That is why we only list favourites from 1.25.
How is the win probability calculated?
We combine the odds minus the bookmaker margin (60%) with our Poisson model based on season form (40%).
Both teams to score today · Over 2.5 goals today · Under 2.5 goals today · All markets · Odds today